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Thursday, September 20, 2007

Forex Trading - What Are Fibonacci Numbers?

Author: Amar Mahallati

Do you know who Leonardo Fibonacci is? Now, when you think of the name "Leonardo," perhaps you think of Leonardo da Vinci, but unlike Leonardo da Vinci, Leonardo Fibonacci did not paint the Mona Lisa. No, Leonardo Fibonacci was a mathematician who lived from about 1175 to 1250. He was well known in his day and contributed greatly to the world of mathematics. One of the things he did was that he introduced the decimal system to Europe.

He also studied a sequence of numbers that are known today as the "Fibonacci numbers." Alternatively, they are known as the "Fibonacci sequence."

The Fibonacci sequence begins with a zero and one. Each new number is the sum of the two previous numbers; for instance, zero plus one equals two, one plus two equals three, two plus three equals five, and so on.

Therefore, the first numbers in the sequence appear as follows: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, ad infinitum.

Fibonacci discovered that this series of numbers and their ratios to each other occurred throughout nature and in fact are incredibly commonplace in the world.

So what does this have to do with forex trading? Well, the ratios that the Fibonacci numbers displayed are also apparent in the price movement of currencies, as well as in stocks and other types of investments.

Although it's too detailed to go into here, there are three numbers you need to concentrate on from this sequence. They are 0.382, 0.500, and 0.618. There are others as well, but these are the most important.

These numbers help to calculate what are called "retracement levels." Many traders use retracement levels when they need to figure out where they should place buy and sell orders. It works like this:

Let's assume that the price of a currency pair, or a company stock, is trending upward. The history says that prices tend to hit a peak and then go into temporary reversal. Then, they continue to trend upward. This is where Fibonacci numbers come into play.

When a currency is trending, the price can be expected to reverse back to one of the Fibonacci numbers. Then, it "bounces" back to its original level or nearly so to continue the trend. Assuming you forecast this right, you can buy just before the upward trend continues and profit handsomely.

Whatever the online trading platform you use, it should give you the means to chart the Fibonacci numbers. To do this, you draw a line from a low point to a high point. Retrace the levels will automatically be mapped on the chart for you.

There are the things to consider besides trading when the price hits a particular Fibonacci number.

For instance, you don't know at what retracement level the price will stop. If you choose 0.382 and it drops to 0.618, you could lose a great deal. Additionally, if you choose the wrong high or low point, the retracement levels will not reflect what actually happens and will be of no use to you.

Finally, even though Fibonacci numbers are a good tool, sometimes they don't forecast accurately at all. Again, remember that many variables come into play in the forex market. Therefore, don't rely just on one method, like Fibonacci numbers, to predict what price movement is going to be.

Forex Trading - What Are Fibonacci Numbers?

Author: Amar Mahallati

Do you know who Leonardo Fibonacci is? Now, when you think of the name "Leonardo," perhaps you think of Leonardo da Vinci, but unlike Leonardo da Vinci, Leonardo Fibonacci did not paint the Mona Lisa. No, Leonardo Fibonacci was a mathematician who lived from about 1175 to 1250. He was well known in his day and contributed greatly to the world of mathematics. One of the things he did was that he introduced the decimal system to Europe.

He also studied a sequence of numbers that are known today as the "Fibonacci numbers." Alternatively, they are known as the "Fibonacci sequence."

The Fibonacci sequence begins with a zero and one. Each new number is the sum of the two previous numbers; for instance, zero plus one equals two, one plus two equals three, two plus three equals five, and so on.

Therefore, the first numbers in the sequence appear as follows: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, ad infinitum.

Fibonacci discovered that this series of numbers and their ratios to each other occurred throughout nature and in fact are incredibly commonplace in the world.

So what does this have to do with forex trading? Well, the ratios that the Fibonacci numbers displayed are also apparent in the price movement of currencies, as well as in stocks and other types of investments.

Although it's too detailed to go into here, there are three numbers you need to concentrate on from this sequence. They are 0.382, 0.500, and 0.618. There are others as well, but these are the most important.

These numbers help to calculate what are called "retracement levels." Many traders use retracement levels when they need to figure out where they should place buy and sell orders. It works like this:

Let's assume that the price of a currency pair, or a company stock, is trending upward. The history says that prices tend to hit a peak and then go into temporary reversal. Then, they continue to trend upward. This is where Fibonacci numbers come into play.

When a currency is trending, the price can be expected to reverse back to one of the Fibonacci numbers. Then, it "bounces" back to its original level or nearly so to continue the trend. Assuming you forecast this right, you can buy just before the upward trend continues and profit handsomely.

Whatever the online trading platform you use, it should give you the means to chart the Fibonacci numbers. To do this, you draw a line from a low point to a high point. Retrace the levels will automatically be mapped on the chart for you.

There are the things to consider besides trading when the price hits a particular Fibonacci number.

For instance, you don't know at what retracement level the price will stop. If you choose 0.382 and it drops to 0.618, you could lose a great deal. Additionally, if you choose the wrong high or low point, the retracement levels will not reflect what actually happens and will be of no use to you.

Finally, even though Fibonacci numbers are a good tool, sometimes they don't forecast accurately at all. Again, remember that many variables come into play in the forex market. Therefore, don't rely just on one method, like Fibonacci numbers, to predict what price movement is going to be.

Wednesday, March 14, 2007

Forex - Trade Too Often, Lose Too Often

By Kent Douglas

The thrill and rush of excitement caused by a few successful trades can be intoxicating and leave you wanting more—a lot more! Still, the heart of any investment strategy centers around putting the odds of success in your favor and overtrading in the Forex market can undermine even the best of strategies. Forex is a very volatile market and most investors would be wise to follow the advice of Jimmy Rogers, a famous and successful trader who is quoted as saying, “One of the best rules that anyone can learn…is to do nothing.”

One of the biggest mistakes that an investor can make is to allow fear or greed to govern the decision-making process. Fear causes investors to close positions too early or to stop opening positions altogether. While fear limits the potential for profit, greed opens up the door to huge and staggering losses. Chasing profits due to fear causes investors to keep a position longer than they should have or to spread themselves too thin. Inevitably, market volatility will swing in the wrong direction and an investor can lose everything!

Risk Management

Any time an investor opens a position there will be risk. The market is always right while even the best of investors are only right part of the time. Each and every position should have a stop/loss order attached to it. Stop orders will limit risk and protect the investor from riding a losing trend too long. Plus, when the order is in place and adhered to, there is no reason at all to trade unless the stop has been triggered so they will also help reduce the tendency to over trade.

Especially for investors new to the Forex, stops can be triggered often in the early going. Now while an investor wants the stop to be effective and limit loss, it is important that it not be triggered too early or profit opportunities will be lost. An effective investment strategy may take some time to “dial in” so don’t be surprised if the stops are initially set too tight (or close to the opening price) and are triggered prematurely.

It is very possible that a trading account will have a negative balance in the early going. However, with patience and better placement of stops, an effective investment strategy will begin to win out and be profitable. One of the worst mistakes that beginning investors make is to try and “make up for” a loss by getting out there and investing immediately. If your stops are not set properly, however, this additional investment may be little more than another chance to lose more money.

No Forex investment strategy will work every single time because the market is simply too big and too volatile for anyone to predict with 100% accuracy. Investing too often in the Forex, however, is almost certainly a recipe for disaster while being patient, setting effective stops, and continually testing your strategy will ultimately bring you the profits you seek.

Article by Kent Douglas, author of "The Simple Forex Solution: The Easiest Currency Trading System Anywhere." To learn how you too can succeed in Forex and Currency Trading, please visit http://www.SimpleForexSolution.com

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Kent_Douglas

Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Day Trading System – 3 Reasons You Will Lose Your Equity Quickly

By Sacha Tarkovsky

There is no better way to lose your money quickly than to use a day trading system. Forget the hype and look at the reality of why the odds are stacked firmly against you.

Here are the 3 reasons why and a better forex trading system to use.

Before we look at the reasons look at all the day trading systems around the net and ask for a real time track record or trades tracked in real time that make money and you won’t get one.

So why do they lose here are the 3 reasons you will wipe out your equity quickly.

1. No Reliable Data

Trillions of dollars are traded per day and all short and intra day moves are random. Currencies only show reliable trends long term - PERIOD

2. Volatility

You can’t predict volatility in short time frames.

Stop placement, you may as well just guess or flip a coin as prices can go anywhere within short time frame.

You will have small losses and a lot of them, which will wipe you out over time, because day trading systems:

3. Don’t Run Profits

That alien to day trading.

They all talk about scalping the market, but they only make marginal profits ( and that’s when their lucky) and these never make up for all their losses – so in the end its day traders who get scalped, not the market!

So there you have it.

Day trading systems are a great way to lose your money and lose it quickly.

Don’t believe me?

Ask for the REALTIME track record from any vendor and you wont get one.

A Better way to trade.

You can trade short time frames i.e. swing trade but the best way is to follow longer term trends.

Currencies reflect the long term economic fundamentals of the country and these last for months or years and yield the big profits.

You need to run your profits and cut your losses and have a simple system you understand the logic of so you can follow it with confidence.

You can easily construct one yourself see our other articles for information on systems.

You Can Do It Yourself

It’s a lot easier than many people think to build a long term trend following system and once done you could soon be catching the big profits from the long term trends that yield the really big profits.

FREE TRADING PLAN PDF AND OTHER ESSENTIAL TRADER INFO

On all aspects of becoming a profitable trader and for an exclusive forex basics PDF visit our website at http://www.net-planet.org/index.html

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Sacha_Tarkovsky

Saturday, February 24, 2007

Forex Advice - 3 Essential Facts To Consider For Profits

By Tarcha Tarkovsky

You maybe new to trading or not doing so well, so you decide you should take some forex trading advice and by it from a vendor.

The copy looks tempting but should you part with your hard earned cash? Let’s look at 3 essential facts you should consider when taking FOREX Advice from anyone.

1. Does The Vendor Have a Track Record

By this I mean a real track record of real forex profits, supported by account statements. This will allow you to strike over 90% of the people selling FOREX advice off your list. Fact is most come with vague testimonials of the odd profit or a hypothetical track record. These are meaningless. Anyone can have the odd lucky trade and anyone can make a track record profitable if they know the price history. If you take FOREX trading advice you want some proof the vendor has made some profits and put their money where there mouth is rather than relying on making money out of you from selling the advice.

2. Make sure you understand the methodology

By this I mean make sure you know the logic the advice is based upon. One of the main requirements for following a trading system through losing periods is discipline. If you don’t understand the forex advice you won’t have the discipline to follow it and will throw in the towel early.

3. Make sure it suits your trading personality

Some traders like high returns and can tolerate big swings in equity against them others like a more gentle way of trading. When taking forex advice look at the track record and look at the worst drawdown i.e you had started following the advice at the worst time and see if that fits with your methodology. A system may make 90% in a year but if you have a 60% drawdown and can’t tolerate this risk you will probably throw in the towel early.

Finally

Use common sense when taking forex advice from anyone and make sure that their reputable and offer advice assistance and most who do will offer you a satisfaction or money back guarantee. There is some good forex trading advice out there and if you use the above criteria to choose you will get rid of the bulk of advice which is normally sold by book sellers who have no chance of making money.

MORE FREE BETTER TRADING INFO

On all aspects of becoming a profitable trader including free articles, features, downloads and for a exclusive Gann Trading Course visit our website at http://www.net-planet.org/index.html

Thursday, January 18, 2007

How Many Indicators Do You Need To Watch When Forex Trading

By Adrian Pablo

Forex trading has become a widespread activity around the world these days. Since the introduction of the internet, the access to the currency markets has become a work at home activity that many people has embraced and converted into their main income source.

But Forex trading is not easy. It may be hard work sometimes, but no one can deny that trading the forex has a huge profit potential for the “initiated trader”. The amount of work depends on how much you know about the currency markets and the tools available to you.

As a forex trader you will need to have a “trading compass” in order to successfully trade the market. The usual thing for the forex trader is to have a number of indicators that will serve as the “compass” in his trading activity and efforts for profitable trades. There are indicators as Bollinger Bands, EMA’s, Elliot Waves, Fibonacci levels, Pivots, etc. I’ve known of traders who have tested more than 100 indicators!.

Once you understand and learn the language of each of these indicators you must be ready to read the forex charts for a while and start making decisions based on the information you get from the number of indicators you may be using at the moment, and these can be many indicators that you will have to use at once when you are facing a no very clear market.

The work involved in using these indicators is one of the main reasons most forex traders dream with a tool that would let them trade without spending too much time reading the charts and that would also help them reduce the stress of the trading decision. All this would involve the use of a “Forex Trading Machine”, a tool that, believe it or not, nowadays exists and which use has been spreading in the forex trading world.

You can test the Forex Trading Machine here:

=>> http://www.1-forex.com/FXTM

Tuesday, January 9, 2007

Forex Signals - Are You Limiting Your Profits?

By David Shephard

One of the greatest disadvantages for the Forex trader is the time that is needed to monitor the often fast moving and volatile currency markets so that advantage can be taken of entry and exit points for trading. For many traders this means sitting in front of their computer screen and watching the markets for hours on end.

One way around this problem is to make use of automation and place limits and stops on your orders. This way, you can walk away from your screen safe in the knowledge that, if nothing else, your losses at least will be kept to a minimum. The problem here though is that you also often miss out on potential profits because your limit order kicks in too early.

So just how do you solve this problem?

The simplest solution is to use a Forex signal service which will both monitor and analyze the markets for you and then notify you when necessary through a variety of different channels including onscreen notification, email, SMS and pager messages.

Forex signals services are provided on a subscription basis, paid either monthly or annually, and can also be provided by your broker as an extra service which can be integrated into their trading software.

Most signal services limited the number of currency pairs on which the service operates but the majority will offer services for the major trading currencies including the USD against the EUR, GBP, JPY and CHF. A number of companies also provide specialist services in less frequently traded currency pairs.

The majority of services use a combination of factors in identifying trends in the market and in recommending entry and exit points, but all are based in the main on a technical analysis of the currency markets. These services in essence compile currency charts and then use a variety of mathematical models to make their trading recommendations.

For example, they may use a simple moving average to trigger buy signals as currency prices move above the average line and sell signals as prices fall below the moving average. In addition, volume indicators can also be used to indicate levels of interest in the market with high volume, especially when it occurs close to the bottom of the market, indicating the possible start of a new trend and low volume pointing to investor uncertainty.

This of course is a somewhat simplistic picture used here only for illustration of the nature of Forex signal services. In reality a large number of tools are used, including those already mentioned and many others such as Bollinger bands and volatility and momentum, and these together form part of a complex mathematical model which generates the signals sent out to subscribers.

Services will of course vary considerably, as with anything else in life, and they are very much an aid to the busy trader and just one tool in his toolbox. They are certainly not infallible and only your own experience of using such services will really determine whether or not they are of sufficient benefit to you to warrant the cost of anywhere from about $50 to $200 a month.

One important point to remember is that Forex signal services provide you with advice and nothing more. It is up to you to take that advice and act upon it or not as your own knowledge and experience tells you. If you simply take the advice provided by the service and act upon it blindly then, if you have a very good service, you may come out on top but, in many cases, you will find that your trading is less than successful.

For further information about real time Forex news and what to do if you would like to learn forex trading online please visit ForexOnlineTradingSystem.info today.